Nate Silver\'s Poker Tips

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver traveled to Australia to play in the Aussie Millions Poker Championship. While he was there, he spoke to Fairfax Media about tics, tells and “playing the math.”

Nate Silver\'s Poker Tips

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver traveled to Australia to play in the Aussie Millions Poker Championship. While he was there, he spoke to Fairfax Media about tics, tells and “playing the math.”

In Dispute Over Ray Charles Songs, Family Gains Victory in Court

A dispute between the children of Ray Charles and the foundation to which he left most of his money is the latest battleground in one of the entertainment industry’s most contentious issues: the “termination rights” that allow artists and their families to recover the copyrights to their work from third parties like record companies or publishers.

Last week a federal judge in California ruled that the Ray Charles Foundation cannot interfere with the efforts of seven of Charles’s 12 surviving children to recover the music publishing rights to about 60 of his classic songs, like “I Got a Woman,” “Hallelujah I Love Her So” and “Mary Ann.” The foundation, a nonprofit charitable organization founded by Charles in 1986, currently receives royalties on those songs.

In a further blow, the judg, Audrey B. Collins of United States District Court in Los Angeles, also ruled that the foundation must reimburse the children for their legal expenses.

The case combines the drama of a family fight over a celebrity’s legacy with a detail of copyright law that poses a threat to the entertainment industry. An amendment to United States copyright law that took effect in 1978 gave artists the right to recover the copyrights to their 35 years after they were granted to another party; for works copyrighted before 1978 the rule also applied, but after 56 years.

In the music industry, most of the concern about these cases has been about whether record companies and publishers would prevail over artists by claiming that their music was “work for hire” â€" in other words, as an employee â€" and is thus exempt from termination claims. But the Charles case also reveals how complicated these claims can be when they involve deceased authors and their wills.

The case was triggered in 2010 w! hen Charles’ children filed termination notices for the songs with their publisher, Warner/Chappell. Last year, the foundation â€" which includes former business associates of Ray Charles but no members of his family â€" sued the children, saying that they did not have the rights to reclaim the songs’ copyrights and had breached agreements with their father. Before Charles’s death in 2004, most of his children had signed agreements saying that in exchange for $500,000, they would make no further claims on his estate after he died.

Judge Collins ruled against the foundation, noting that the law gave rights to surviving family members of a deceased artist, which cannot be superseded by any other agreement, including a will.

Valerie Ervin, the foundation’s president, said in a statement that it would appeal the decision. “The very clear and unmistakable intention of both Ray Charles and all his children was that, in exchange for a substantial payment, the children were not to raise any clims against their father’s estate,” Ms. Ervin said. “The children who filed these termination notices violated the sacred promise they made. They took their father’s money and now come back for more. The law is very unsettled in these matters and we intend to seek resolution through the courts.”

The judge also approved a motion brought by the Charles family to dismiss the suit under laws against so-called Slapp suits, or strategic lawsuits against public participation, which obstruct free speech and petition. As part of that victory, the judge ruled that the foundation must pay the family’s legal fees, which will be determined later.

“The decision is important for authors/artists and their families everywhere,” Marc Toberoff, the lawyer for the Charles children, wrote in a statement. “A disturbing trend has emerged where adversely affected companies initiate frivolous legal action to chill the exercise of the Copyright Act’s inalienable termination right. By holding th! at termin! ation is protected under anti-Slapp statutes, which include a mandatory award of attorneys fees, those who pursue such strategies do so at their own peril.”

Ben Sisario writes about the music industry. Follow @sisario on Twitter.

\'Katie\' to Return for a Second Season

Not many syndicated talk shows survive to a second year, but if one show was a likely candidate, it was the new entry starring Katie Couric. On Wednesday, Disney-ABC Domestic Television made it official: the show will return for a second season.

That decision was widely expected because “Katie” has been, by far, the best-rated new syndicated talk entry this season. It also moved easily into the top tier among all the shows in the talk category, finishing sixth in total viewers of the 18 syndicated shows competing in the talk genre. It averages about 2.5 million viewers each day.

The renewal is good news for Ms. Couric, who took something of a risk leaving the network news business, where she had most recently been the anchor of “The CBS Evening News.” It is also good news for Jeff Zucker, now the president at CNN, because he shares ownership of the show with Ms. Couric and the syndication company.

Mr. Zucker, who first teamed up with Ms. Couric on NBC’s “Today,” was the exeutive producer of “Katie” before he took the job at CNN.

Answer in Sight for \'How I Met Your Mother\'

It will take, in total, nine years, but yes, there will be an answer to “How I Met Your Mother” â€" and it will be revealed in spring 2014.

That’s because all the show’s key players, from its cast members, including Jason Segel, Neal Patrick Harris and Josh Radnor, to its creators, Carter Bays and Craig Thomas, agreed to a new deal on Wednesday with CBS and the production studio 20th Century Fox Television. The agreement will bring the comedy to a close after one more season.

“HIMYM,” as the show is known, continues to be one of the top-rated comedies on television this season, averaging almost 10 million viewers â€" when delayed viewing is included.

The series has managed to survive despite a premise that teased viewers into wondering whether it would ever introduce the character who would be the mother of the two children in the show. They were first introduced in 2005, supposedly listening to their father in 2030 recounting his many romantic encounters until he met and maried their mother.

The producers even took the precaution of shooting, several years ago, the final scene with the two actors who have played the children, David Henrie and Lyndsy Fonseca, so they would not be near adulthood when the series ended.

Ratings Drop for Season Premiere of \'Dallas\'

The ratings for the two-hour premiere of season two of “Dallas,” the revival of the fabled soap on the TNT cable channel, are not going to do much to relieve the down mood left after the death of the show’s central star, Larry Hagman.

Monday night, the show attracted an audience smaller than any episode in its first season, and one significantly lower than the show’s premiere had in 2012.

For the first time, “Dallas” fell below three million viewers, with 2.97 million for the premiere. Last season, the show averaged about 4.2 million viewers, and its least-watched episode attracted 3.24 million.

The premiere episode last season pulled in more than twice as many viewers with 6.86 million. And the finale last season was also a success, with 4.28 million.

The news was equally grim among the viewers whom TNT is looking to reach to sell to advertisers. Monday’s show was lower than only one episode last year in its ratings for viewers in the two groups of most interest to avertisers, those between the ages of 18 and 49 and 25 and 54.

The Best Defense Is a Good Defense

The Super Bowl is just a few days away, and sports axioms are rampant. But which are we to believe Is the best defense a good offense Or does defense win championships In The New York Times Magazine this week, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at how the 20 best defenses and 20 best offenses to play in past Super Bowls fared in the big game, and what their records say about this year’s matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. Read more.

Time Inc. to Reduce Global Staff by 6 Percent

Time Inc. joined the many news organizations that are trying to tighten their belts in a tough advertising climate by announcing layoffs and offering employees buyout packages on Wednesday.

In a memo, Laura Lang, chief executive of Time Inc., said that she planned to reduce the company’s worldwide staff of 8,000 employees by 6 percent, or about 480 employees. Ms. Lang stressed that the cuts would extend beyond New York and that it was hoped they would help Time Inc. better make the transition to the digital world.

“They come from all areas of Time Inc. across our locations â€" both domestic and international,” Ms. Lang said. “We must continue to transform our company into one that is leaner, more nimble and more innately multiplatform.”

Editors at People and Time magazines announced buyout packages Wednesday morning and other magazines are expected to follow with announcements throughout the day.

In a memo to his staff, Larry Hackett, editor in chief of People magazine, sid that he was seeking nine volunteers to accept severance packages. According to the memo, he specifically was looking for three writers and six reporters or researchers to volunteer to take packages.

Mr. Hackett said in his memo that volunteers must apply by Feb. 13. “If necessary, we will then follow the guild contract procedure for conducting involuntary layoffs in these guild categories,” he added, referring to the union representing Time employees.

At Time, Richard Stengel, the magazine’s managing editor, said he was seeking two researchers, one staff writer and three copy editors to volunteer for severance packages.

YouTube Expected to Experiment With Paid Subscriptions for Some Channels

MIAMI â€" YouTube continues to inch toward a paid subscription option for some of the professionally produced channels, employees of the online video Web site said this week.

“It’s a good time to start experimenting,” Jamie Byrne, the director of content strategy for YouTube, said at a television conference here on Monday. Mr. Byrne didn’t elaborate on the timing, but Advertising Age reported on Tuesday that paid channels could be introduced as early as April.

Mr. Byrne’s use of the word “experiment” is important. YouTube is primarily an advertising-driven service, and no one expects that to change. But some of the companies that produce popular videos for YouTube would like to try charging a modest monthly fee for access to their channels. Ad Age said the subscription option would be tried first with a small group of channels, “likely about 25 at the outset.”

There’ been talk about YouTube creating a paid subscription option for more than a year, and it has gained momentum as Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon have drawn in subscribers for their video offerings. A YouTube spokesman declined to comment on the report about a possible April introduction, but said: “We have long maintained that different content requires different types of payment models. The important thing is that, regardless of the model, our creators succeed on the platform. There are a lot of our content creators that think they would benefit from subscriptions, so we’re looking at that.”

At the conference here, Mr. Byrne suggested two ways YouTube could go about charging for content. Video creators, he said, could have standalone paid channels “and be accountable for all the content there,” much like Glenn Beck’s subscription service The Blaze. Or, he said, YouTube could create bundles of subscription channels, charge one price for all of them and share the revenue with the channel ! creators, much like traditional cable and satellite services.

He was careful to add, though, “I wouldn’t count the ad model out.”

The interest in paid subscriptions comes as YouTube continues to invests heavily in original programming. Last fall its parent, Google, announced a plan to invest $200 million to market the new channels on the service.

“These channels, we think of them as the next wave of potential networks,” Mr. Byrne said. “We think it’s going great.”

BlackBerry Wants to \'Keep Moving\' With Massive New Campaign

The much-discussed arrival on Wednesday of the all-new BlackBerry smartphones and operating system,  which have been deemed crucial to the future of the parent, Research In Motion,  will be accompanied by a massive marketing campaign that is being described as the largest in the company’s history.

The campaign, with a budget estimated at more than $200 million, will include work from six agencies and the first-ever Super Bowl commercial for the BlackBerry brand, which is to appear during Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday.

In addition to the Super Bowl spot, there will be other television commercials, print and online ads, promotions, public relations efforts, events, a partnership with arts and cultural figures likeAlicia Keys, a presence in social media and elaborate digital demonstrations in real time of the new offerings.

The spending will be the most ever for the company “by a long shot,” Frank Boulben, chief executive at Research In Motion - which will now be called BlackBerry, as part of a corporate-wide rebranding - said during an interview in Midtown Manhattan on Tuesday.

Although “marketing success is not measured by how much you put into it,” Mr. Boulben said, referring to the size of a budget, the goal in this instance is for “a hugely impactful campaign.”

The campaign for the new BlackBerry Z10, formerly known as the BlackBerry 10, will carry the theme “Keep moving,” in a hat-tip to the psychographics of the target audience. Some ads will use the phrase “Built to keep you moving.”

People who use BlackBerry devices are “doers, achievers, people of action,” Mr. Boulben said. “They are about getting things done, succe! ss-oriented, multitasking and hyper-connected.”

(Three decades ago, such consumers were described as “the coffee achievers” in a campaign for the National Coffee Association.)

Mr. Boulben shared a quotation from Conrad Hilton, the lodging mogul who, coincidentally, figured in the plot line of episodes of “Mad Men,” the television series about the ad business.  In the quotation, Hilton linked success and action and described how those who are successful “keep moving” and “don’t quit” despite any mistakes they may make.

Throughout the campaign, “the hero will be the product,” Mr. Boulben said, and “each piece of marketing will showcase a feature of the user experience.”

For instance, one commercial depicts how a user can “jump backward and forward in time to capture theperfect shot” of a child who is hard to photograph. The user takes advantage of a feature called Time Shift to replace an unsmiling face of the boy with a smiling one.

Ads for the Time Shift feature describe it with headlines like “Turn missed moments into magic ones.”

Another commercial tells how a user can “peek in and out of messages in the BlackBerry Hub from any app.” In a vignette, a young man prone on a float in a pool notices on his BlackBerry Z10 that “free gig tickets” are being offered online by his favorite band. He is seen next prone again, this time as he gleefully body-surfs amid a crowd of concertgoers.

In a banner ad online, a computer user can take a typing challenge that is meant to show off the new BlackBerry keyboard. “Go thumb-to-thumb against the BlackBerry Z10 in a real-time text-off,” the ad declares.

A message at the end of a demonstration that was successful for BlackBerry would read something like this: “The Z10 was 2.5 seconds f! aster and! needed 12 fewer keystrokes.”

The decision to advertise BlackBerry on the Super Bowl for the first time was inspired by the fact the introductory campaign would start four days before the game, Mr. Boulben said.

“The Super Bowl for us is an opportunity to mark our comeback,” he said, “and intrigue them to find out for themselves what BlackBerry Z10 is all about.”

“There is no better platform,” he added.

Another smartphone brand, Samsung Mobile, will also advertise during Super Bowl XVLII. Samsung Mobile, which also advertised during the Super Bowl last year, plans to run a commercial during the fourth quarter with the comedians Paul Rudd and Seth Rogen.

The Samsung Mobile spot is to last two minutes; the BlackBerry Z10 spot is to run 30 seconds.

The agencies working on the BlackBerry campaign are: Abbott Mead Vickers BBDO, part of the BBDO Worldwide division of the Omnicom Group, for creative and brand efforts; a digital team within the Publicis Groupe, for he digital efforts; Proximity, also part of BBDO, for customer relationship marketing; Phonevalley, part of Publicis, for mobile initiatives; Brodeur Partners, for public relations; and Edelman, part of Daniel J. Edelman Inc., for social media.

According to the Kantar Media unit of WPP, Research In Motion spent $148.2 million to advertise BlackBerry in major media in 2011, $169.5 million in 2010 and $109.7 million in 2009.

Ad spending in the first nine months of last year totaled $58.7 million, Kantar Media reported, a slowdown that reflected the plans to promote the new products in 2013.

Backstage to Acquire Sonicbids

Looking for a part on Broadway Or maybe a showcase at South by Southwest Both searches could end up fielded by the same company, now that two of the leading sites that help actors and up-and-coming musicians find work are joining together.

Backstage, a publication that since the “Mad Men” age has been a highly trafficked job board for actors, will announce on Wednesday that it is buying Sonicbids, a Web site that lets bands book performances at festivals, clubs and elsewhere.

The deal is estimated at $15 million, and will be financed by Guggenheim Partners, whose media properties include Dick Clark Productions and Prometheus Global Media, the company behind trade publications like Billboard and The Hollywood Reporter.

Backstage and Sonicbids serve separate parts of the entertainment world, but they have similar business models, offering users some acess free and charging subscriptions for more extensive features. John Amato, the chief executive of Backstage, and Panos Panay, the founder of Sonicbids, said in a joint interview on Tuesday that the combined company would have 600,000 registered users, with 60,000 of them paying subscribers.

Listings by and for performers seeking work are the bread and butter of both sites. Backstage is still published in print, but Mr. Amato said that more than 70 percent of its business is online. Since 1960, Backstage has been the bible of casting calls and audition notices for Broadway, film and television.

“If you have a desk job, there are a lot of places you can go to find a job online,” said Mr. Amato, who will lead the combined company. “If you are a creative, there aren’t a lot of those places.”

Sonicbids, founded in 2001, lets its users build online press kits and apply for shows with promoters. It competes with other artist-services companie! s like ReverbNation, and also Myspace, where musicians of every level can create public profiles. Sonicbids is also the platform used by the South by Southwest festival for band applications.

The site has also tried to make itself a talent forum to attract corporate brands, like Bud Light and Gap, that are looking for music for ads or promotional campaigns.

“We find that bands are not just looking for gigs,” Mr. Panay said. “They are also looking to connect with brands, to have their music in TV commercials, to have their music on Broadway and in film.”

Sonicbids, based in Boston, will retain its name and staff, as will Backstage, which has offices in New York and Los Angeles.

Ben Sisario writes about the music industry. Follow @sisario on Twitter.