NBC Moves Struggling ‘Smash’ to Saturday Slot

NBC’s ambitious effort to turn the creation of a Broadway musical into a television drama essentially ended Wednesday when the network announced it will move “Smash” to Saturday nights to play out the remainder of its second season.

The move is set for April 6, and it means the show’s final batch of episodes will play in obscurity, because Saturday night is now where networks send failing shows to die.

NBC announced a series of schedule moves Wednesday, which basically centered on the abandoned hope that “Smash” might turn around what has been an abysmal ratings performance since it returned for its second season, as well as NBC’s belief that it may have a promising new reality series in the dating show “Ready for Love.”

NBC announced that show will inherit the old slot on Tuesdays occupied by “Smash,” with two-hour episodes that will follow the network’s one pillar of strength, the singing competition, “The Voice.”

Starting April 9, “Ready for Love,†which several NBC executives praised this week as having potential to capture the female audience that loved “The Bachelor” on ABC this winter, will move to Tuesdays.

NBC had hoped that “Smash” might recover from a rocky end to its first season, which was undone, after a promising start, by plotlines and writing widely disparaged by critics.

When the show began last year those critics were strongly in its corner, praising NBC for the original idea of building a series about the creative process of conceiving an original musical. But the show seemed to abandon that idea and instead deteriorated into soapy plots that undermined the strength of the original songs composed for the show.

This season NBC brought in a new creative team and some big-name talent, including Jennifer Hudson and the Broadway star Jeremy Jordan (“Newsies”). But viewers never gave the revamped version a chance. The audience from the first episode of the new season was down drastically, and declined ! from there. This week’s episode drew fewer than 3 million viewers.

“Smash” was also a highly expensive show, with a cost of about $4.2 million an episode. All 17 of the ordered episodes were produced, meaning NBC had more than $70 million invested in a show that had little audience support. And that expense came on top of one of the most expensive promotion campaigns in recent memory for the first season of a show.

Schultz to Give Up Weekday Slot on MSNBC

One of MSNBC’s most important and lucrative time slots, 8 p.m., is about to get a new host. But MSNBC won’t name the person quite yet.

The existing 8 p.m. host, Ed Schultz, surprised his viewers on Wednesday night by saying that Thursday night’s edition of “The Ed Show” would be his last. In April he will take a new weekend shift from 5 to 7 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays.

“MSNBC will be expanding its weekend programming, and this opens a big opportunity for ‘The Ed Show’ and my brand,” Mr. Schultz said at the end of his nightly news talk show, which is known for having a focus on labor issues and the working class in the United States.

He asserted that he had raised his hand for the assignment “for a number of personal and professional reasons.” Among them, he said: “I want to get out with the people and tell their stories.”

In the halls of MSNBC, the cable news channel owned by Comcast, Mr. Schultz’s move out of 8 p.m. has been expected at least since lte last year, when The New York Times reported that the Washington Post columnist Ezra Klein was a candidate for the time slot.

Mr. Klein, who doubles as an MSNBC contributor, has filled in for the channel’s prime-time hosts dozens of times, and appeared on the channel as recently as Wednesday afternoon.

Other MSNBC figures mentioned for the 8 p.m. time slot included Christopher Hayes, the host of the weekend morning panel discussion “Up,” and Joy Reid, the managing editor of the Comcast-owned Web site TheGrio and, like Mr. Klein, an MSNBC contributor.

After Ms. Reid’s fans asked her questions on Twitter about Mr. Schultz’s announcement, she wrote, “I’m as shocked as anyone about Ed and have no idea who’s coming on at 8. Real talk.”

Several other MSNBC hosts and contributors echoed that sentiment on Wednesday night. A spok! eswoman for the channel said the new 8 p.m. host (or hosts) would be named on Thursday morning, ahead of an annual presentation for advertisers to be held by NBC News, the network news division that MSNBC is aligned with.

For Cardinals, Advantages in Choosing an Older Pope

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina as the new pope, Francis, was largely unexpected by betting markets and Vatican experts, in part because of his advanced age. Cardinal Bergoglio, 76, is probably the ninth oldest of the 266 popes at the time of his election, accounting for some uncertainty because the age of many early popes remains unknown.

As a matter of actuarial science, Francis is not likely to have an especially long tenure. The nine previous men who were known to be 75 or older at the time of their election to the papacy served for an average of only five years.

That may be too pessimistic an estimate in the case of Francis: it is based on a small sample size and does not account for modern improvements in health and medical science. Acknowledging that there are considerable lifestyle diferences between an Argentinian pope and an average American citizen, the life expectancy for a 76-year-old American man is now about 10 additional years. Of course, Francis could follow Benedict XVI’s precedent by resigning the papacy before his death. It is probably safe to say that a tenure shorter than five years would be considered brief for Francis, while a regime of much more than 10 years might be unexpectedly long.

The cardinals who elected Cardinal Bergoglio are probably not looking up actuarial tables, but they presumably have some intuition about how long his papacy might last. So one question is whether they saw his advanced age as a liability â€" or an asset.

How might Francis’ age be advantageous One reason is that, if he were to serve 5 to 10 years, that would actually be very well in line with historical precedent. Beginning with St. Peter in 33 A.D., there have been 266 popes in 1,! 980 years, or about one new pope every seven and a half years. Benedict XVI’s regime, which lasted for seven years and 315 days before ending in February, was also well in line with this historical average.

The Roman Catholic Church has gone through different fashions in the ages of its popes. They rose steadily throughout the 16th and 17th centuries, culminating with the selection of the 79-year-old Clement X in 1670. However, as the chart below suggests, there was also a very considerable increase in the life expectancy of popes during this period. Popes were starting their pontificates at a later age, but also ending them at a later age; thus, there was little change in the length of their papacies, which averaged about seven years.

<>The Catholic Church continued to elect older popes throughout the late 17th and early 18th centuries, a period that included the selection of the 79-year-old Alexander VIII, the 76-year-old Innocent XII, the 75-year-old Benedict XIII and the 78-year-old Clement XII. Between 1670 and 1730, the average pope was elected at 71 and served until 80, an average tenure of nine years.

The Catholic Church then shifted back toward picking younger popes. Beginning with Benedict XIV in 1740, the next 14 popes were all between 54 and 68 at the time of their election. The improvements in life expectancy held, however, so they served considerably longer than their predecessors: an average of 15 years.

The average age of popes elected since 1958 ! has been ! varied: there was the 76-year-old John XXIII, the 76-year-old Francis and the 78-year-old Benedict XVI on the one hand, and the 58-year-old John Paul II, the 65-year-old John Paul I and the 65-year-old Paul VI on the other. But the average age has been 70, more in line with the 17th-century precedent. The length of their papacies has also been highly varied, but they have served for an average of 11 years and a median of 7, also somewhat closer to historical norms.

The other reason the cardinal electors might have seen Francis’ age as an asset is because the cardinals are also quite old: 72 on average. (Cardinals must be younger than 80 to participate in the papal conclave.) If Francis serves for 5 to 10 years, a considerable number of the cardinals will have another opportunity to steer the course of the church by voting again on a pope, something that would have been much less likely had they selected a cndidate in his 50s or 60s.

What about the risk to the cardinals that Francis, already 76, could serve past an age when he is mentally and physically fit - with their having no way to remove him from the papacy It is possible that the resignation of Benedict XVI, the first since Gregory XII in 1415, actually alleviated that concern, because there is now a modern precedent for popes resigning because of their advanced age. In other words, it is plausible that the resignation of Benedict XVI â€" which conventional wisdom held might tilt the cardinals toward electing a younger pope â€" in fact enabled them to choose an older one.

For Cardinals, Advantages in Choosing an Older Pope

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina as the new pope, Francis, was largely unexpected by betting markets and Vatican experts, in part because of his advanced age. Cardinal Bergoglio, 76, is probably the ninth oldest of the 266 popes at the time of his election, accounting for some uncertainty because the age of many early popes remains unknown.

As a matter of actuarial science, Francis is not likely to have an especially long tenure. The nine previous men who were known to be 75 or older at the time of their election to the papacy served for an average of only five years.

That may be too pessimistic an estimate in the case of Francis: it is based on a small sample size and does not account for modern improvements in health and medical science. Acknowledging that there are considerable lifestyle diferences between an Argentinian pope and an average American citizen, the life expectancy for a 76-year-old American man is now about 10 additional years. Of course, Francis could follow Benedict XVI’s precedent by resigning the papacy before his death. It is probably safe to say that a tenure shorter than five years would be considered brief for Francis, while a regime of much more than 10 years might be unexpectedly long.

The cardinals who elected Cardinal Bergoglio are probably not looking up actuarial tables, but they presumably have some intuition about how long his papacy might last. So one question is whether they saw his advanced age as a liability â€" or an asset.

How might Francis’ age be advantageous One reason is that, if he were to serve 5 to 10 years, that would actually be very well in line with historical precedent. Beginning with St. Peter in 33 A.D., there have been 266 popes in 1,! 980 years, or about one new pope every seven and a half years. Benedict XVI’s regime, which lasted for seven years and 315 days before ending in February, was also well in line with this historical average.

The Roman Catholic Church has gone through different fashions in the ages of its popes. They rose steadily throughout the 16th and 17th centuries, culminating with the selection of the 79-year-old Clement X in 1670. However, as the chart below suggests, there was also a very considerable increase in the life expectancy of popes during this period. Popes were starting their pontificates at a later age, but also ending them at a later age; thus, there was little change in the length of their papacies, which averaged about seven years.

<>The Catholic Church continued to elect older popes throughout the late 17th and early 18th centuries, a period that included the selection of the 79-year-old Alexander VIII, the 76-year-old Innocent XII, the 75-year-old Benedict XIII and the 78-year-old Clement XII. Between 1670 and 1730, the average pope was elected at 71 and served until 80, an average tenure of nine years.

The Catholic Church then shifted back toward picking younger popes. Beginning with Benedict XIV in 1740, the next 14 popes were all between 54 and 68 at the time of their election. The improvements in life expectancy held, however, so they served considerably longer than their predecessors: an average of 15 years.

The average age of popes elected since 1958 ! has been ! varied: there was the 76-year-old John XXIII, the 76-year-old Francis and the 78-year-old Benedict XVI on the one hand, and the 58-year-old John Paul II, the 65-year-old John Paul I and the 65-year-old Paul VI on the other. But the average age has been 70, more in line with the 17th-century precedent. The length of their papacies has also been highly varied, but they have served for an average of 11 years and a median of 7, also somewhat closer to historical norms.

The other reason the cardinal electors might have seen Francis’ age as an asset is because the cardinals are also quite old: 72 on average. (Cardinals must be younger than 80 to participate in the papal conclave.) If Francis serves for 5 to 10 years, a considerable number of the cardinals will have another opportunity to steer the course of the church by voting again on a pope, something that would have been much less likely had they selected a cndidate in his 50s or 60s.

What about the risk to the cardinals that Francis, already 76, could serve past an age when he is mentally and physically fit - with their having no way to remove him from the papacy It is possible that the resignation of Benedict XVI, the first since Gregory XII in 1415, actually alleviated that concern, because there is now a modern precedent for popes resigning because of their advanced age. In other words, it is plausible that the resignation of Benedict XVI â€" which conventional wisdom held might tilt the cardinals toward electing a younger pope â€" in fact enabled them to choose an older one.

In Papal Elections, Are Long Shots the Rule

“Go in a pope, come out a cardinal.”

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, who did not appear on various preconclave lists of likely popes, seemed to confirm that old line about papal selection. “The chances of being elected pope decreases in proportion to the number of times he is described papabile in the press,” George Weigel, a Vatican expert, told CNN in 2005. Mr Weigel refers to the pattern as the Pignedoli Principle, after Cardinal Sergio Pignedoli, a much-discussed candidate who was not chosen as pope in 1978.

The Pignedolis of 2013 were Cardinal Angelo Scola, of Italy; Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, of Brazil; and Cardinal Peter Turkson, of Ghana, the favorites of oddsmakers and some experts. In the wake of the selection of Cardinal Bergoglio - Pope Francis - you can expect to hear more about “Go in a pope, come out a crdinal.”

But is it actually a useful guide to conclaves Probably not.

After all, Francis’ predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, was widely seen as a favorite or even the favorite heading into the last conclave, in 2005. Here is more from that CNN article in 2005, before Benedict’s election: “Weigel claims that with the exception of Pope Pius XII in 1939 and Pope Paul VI in 1963, ‘everyone else was a surprise, at least as measured by public speculation prior to the conclave.’ ”

Including 1939, the Vatican has held seven conclaves in the past 75 years. In three of them (1939, 1963 and 2005), the selection was one of the apparent favorites. In four of them (1958, both conclaves in 1978 and now 2013), the selection was a surprise. That hardly seems a strong enough pattern to deem predictive. Sometimes, the public discussion of the contenders reflects the cardinals’ actual preferences - or may shape those preferences. And sometimes the public discus! sion is either off base or may in fact push the cardinals away from a favorite.

The fact that “Go in a pope, come out a cardinal” has nonetheless become a cliché is a good reminder of how easily we are tricked by small sample sizes. It is also an example of what psychologists call confirmation bias, in which we overweight evidence that fits our pre-existing beliefs and ignore evidence that does not. (In his look at the internal polls of the 2012 election, Nate Silver discusses the issues in more detail.)

After a blackjack table gives gamblers a few bad hands, they decide it is unlucky. After Barry Bonds has a few bad postseasons, fans decide he is a choker who can’t hit in October - and then he reels off one of the great postseasons in baseball history. After housing prices rise rapidly for a few years, home buyers, and even top government officials, decide that ousing prices can never fall.

These rules of thumb make for enjoyable conversation. But they are often not reliable guides to the future, in Rome and elsewhere.

Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.

In Papal Elections, Are Long Shots the Rule

“Go in a pope, come out a cardinal.”

The selection of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, who did not appear on various preconclave lists of likely popes, seemed to confirm that old line about papal selection. “The chances of being elected pope decreases in proportion to the number of times he is described papabile in the press,” George Weigel, a Vatican expert, told CNN in 2005. Mr Weigel refers to the pattern as the Pignedoli Principle, after Cardinal Sergio Pignedoli, a much-discussed candidate who was not chosen as pope in 1978.

The Pignedolis of 2013 were Cardinal Angelo Scola, of Italy; Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, of Brazil; and Cardinal Peter Turkson, of Ghana, the favorites of oddsmakers and some experts. In the wake of the selection of Cardinal Bergoglio - Pope Francis - you can expect to hear more about “Go in a pope, come out a crdinal.”

But is it actually a useful guide to conclaves Probably not.

After all, Francis’ predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, was widely seen as a favorite or even the favorite heading into the last conclave, in 2005. Here is more from that CNN article in 2005, before Benedict’s election: “Weigel claims that with the exception of Pope Pius XII in 1939 and Pope Paul VI in 1963, ‘everyone else was a surprise, at least as measured by public speculation prior to the conclave.’ ”

Including 1939, the Vatican has held seven conclaves in the past 75 years. In three of them (1939, 1963 and 2005), the selection was one of the apparent favorites. In four of them (1958, both conclaves in 1978 and now 2013), the selection was a surprise. That hardly seems a strong enough pattern to deem predictive. Sometimes, the public discussion of the contenders reflects the cardinals’ actual preferences - or may shape those preferences. And sometimes the public discus! sion is either off base or may in fact push the cardinals away from a favorite.

The fact that “Go in a pope, come out a cardinal” has nonetheless become a cliché is a good reminder of how easily we are tricked by small sample sizes. It is also an example of what psychologists call confirmation bias, in which we overweight evidence that fits our pre-existing beliefs and ignore evidence that does not. (In his look at the internal polls of the 2012 election, Nate Silver discusses the issues in more detail.)

After a blackjack table gives gamblers a few bad hands, they decide it is unlucky. After Barry Bonds has a few bad postseasons, fans decide he is a choker who can’t hit in October - and then he reels off one of the great postseasons in baseball history. After housing prices rise rapidly for a few years, home buyers, and even top government officials, decide that ousing prices can never fall.

These rules of thumb make for enjoyable conversation. But they are often not reliable guides to the future, in Rome and elsewhere.

Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.

Disney Delays Release of Video Game and Toy Initiative

LOS ANGELES - The introduction of Disney Infinity, an ambitious new video game and toy initiative, has been pushed from June to late August, a retail window that Disney on Wednesday positioned as more favorable.

But the delay also shifts Infinity from Disney’s fiscal third quarter to its fourth, meaning that any chance of a turnaround at the company’s video game unit will occur later than some investors expected.

Infinity will now arrive in stores on Aug. 18 in North America and on Aug. 20 overseas, John Pleasants, co-president of Disney Interactive, said in a telephone interview. A June rollout had been planned, pegged to the release in theaters of Pixar’s “Monsters University.”

Mr. Pleasants said retailers, impressed with the public reaction to Disney’s unveiling of Infinity in January, pushed for an introduction that was closer to the all-important holiday season, which starts in October. “The date became an issue in terms of them asking, ‘Is there a better opportunityhere’” Mr. Pleasants said.

There may also be competitive reasons for the August date. Disney hopes that Infinity will be its version of Skylanders, a popular product from Activision Blizzard in which players collect action figures and then transfer them into the game’s action by plugging them into a sensor base. Skylanders has generated more than $500 million in sales since its 2011 arrival; about 30 million toys have been sold under the brand.

The next edition of Skylanders is scheduled to arrive in stores this fall. Mr. Pleasants downplayed comparisons, but he also said, “We think it’s good to be first and really lean into the most important selling season of the year.”

August is traditionally a quiet time for video games as families spend money on vacations and back-to-school clothes. But Mr. Pleasants said retailers were willing to devote significant shelf space to the Infinity product line. Disney also hopes that kids will return to sch! ool with the collectible Infinity action figures in their backpacks, leading to trading.

It is not unusual for video game studios to push back release dates, but the reason usually involves glitches and missed internal deadlines. Mr. Pleasants insisted that was not the case with Infinity.

“We could deliver in June if we wanted to,” he said, adding, “Will a two-month timing change help us Sure, of course. It gives us a little more time to add bells and whistles and make sure it really sings and pops.”

Robert A. Iger, Disney’s chief executive and chairman, told Wall Street analysts and investors in May that “we’re targeting 2013 as a year of profitability” for Disney Interactive. He technically made good on that pledge in the last quarter; Disney’s video game and Web business turned an operating profit of $9 million after 16 consecutive quarters of losses.

But most people interpreted Mr. Iger’s remark to mean that the unit, which is Disney’s smallest by far, wouldmake money for the fiscal year, which ends in mid September. There is now little-to-no chance of that, as revenue from Infinity will be mostly pushed into 2014. “This will definitely impact our goal of achieving profitability for the year,” Mr. Pleasants said.

Marvel Signs Agreement to Take Superheroes on the Road

Young girls flock to Disney on Ice, touring shows that feature figure skaters dressed as cartoon characters. Will a live arena show featuring Marvel superheroes bring out older boys

Feld Entertainment, which produces the Disney show, monster truck shows and the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus, on Wednesday announced a partnership with Marvel to introduce a road show featuring Spider-Man, the Hulk, Thor and the Fantastic Four. The show will arrive in the summer of 2014; production expenses are expected to exceed $10 million.

These arena shows, once an entertainment industry backwater, have grown into important tools for media companies seeking to further exploit their creative franchises and deepen their brands, particularly among children. Arena shows can also help penetrate overseas markts; Disney only recently was able to introduce a cable channel in Russia, but its live shows have long toured there.

It’s not a small business, either. About 12.5 million people a year attend Disney on Ice shows around the world (or an offshoot, Disney Live, which is essentially the ice show without the ice). To put that in perspective, Broadway as a whole sold 12.2 million tickets last year.

While girls and families are the primary audience, DreamWorks Animation last year started targeting boys, introducing a live show based on “How to Train Your Dragon.” That expensive arena extravaganza features Vikings and more than a dozen giant puppet dragons, some with wingspans of more than 40 feet.

The Breakfast Meeting: Anna Wintour’s New Role and NPR Appeals to the Tweet Set

Condé Nast plans to announce Wednesday that Anna Wintour, editor of Vogue for nearly a quarter-century, will take on the additional role of artistic director for the company, Eric Wilson reports. The move into Condé Nast’s executive ranks ends speculation that Ms. Wintour might leave the company, and it makes her one of the most powerful women in magazine publishing. Ms. Wintour’s new role will assume some of the responsibility from S.I. Newhouse Jr., who has controlled editorial management as Condé Nast’s chairman for more than three decades. Ms. Wintour described the position as “almost like being a one-person consulting firm” for other editors on directing their brands.

At the sprawling South by Southwest Interactive conference, NPR introduced a new campaign called Generation Listen to appeal to younger listeners, Brian Stelter writes. NPR has seen its audience age steadily, like so many of the old-line media companies â€" a typical radio listener is between 48 and 78. The new campaign, which was envisioned by Danielle Deabler, a manager who pitched it for nearly two years, will include direct outreach to young listeners over Twitter and Facebook based around the manifesto “it’s time for us to get better at finding you where you are and what is most relevant to your lives.”

Five decades of police failures allowed British TV personality Jimmy Savile to escape investigation for a lifetime of sex offenses dating back to the early 1960s, according to a report released Tuesday from a police oversight agency, Stephen Castle writes. Poor police procedures, missed opportunities and an unwillingness t! o pursue one of England’s most-beloved celebrities all contributed. The report indicated that police were first alerted to possible sex crimes by Mr. Savile, who died in 2011, in 1963 â€" the male who brought the charges was told to “forget about it” and “move on,” and no official crime report was made or investigation undertaken. “While we can never right this wrong,” said Theresa May, the home secretary, who is responsible for law enforcement in Britain, “we must learn the lessons to prevent the same from ever happening again.”

Honest Tea, a bottled tea company that took an unorthodox approach to marketing its beverages, is bringing the same originality to their corporate history by telling it through a comic book, Elizabeth Olson writes. The comic traces Honest Tea’s struggles starting in 1998 to their eventual purchase by Coca-Cola in 2011, when thei annual profits had risen from $1.1 million to $75 million. It is aimed as an inspirational guide for entrepreneurs and will be sold on a Web site along with signed bookplates and T-shirts.

Time Warner’s upcoming spinoff of Time Inc. should make investors and magazine readers wonder whether it is a good-faith effort to establish a stand-alone company or just a convenient way to jettison certain businesses, Steven M. Davidoff writes. The business argument for a spinoff is that it allows the former parent and independent company to be better run, but they can also serve as a convenient dumping ground for unreliable assets. When General Motors and Ford Motors spun off their auto parts companies they larded the new subsidiaries with debt, high labor costs and sweetheart pricing deals that drove the new companies into bankruptcy; Ford! and G.M.! are still dealing with the litigation. Time Inc. will require strong leadership, after its current chief, Laura Lang, departs when the company becomes independent, and substantial resources if it is to succeed.