On Sunday Talk Shows, a Familiar Cast of Characters

On the Sunday Morning Talk Shows, a Rather Familiar Cast of Characters

WASHINGTON â€" In mid-February, Senator John McCain went on the NBC program “Meet the Press” to explain his unhappiness with President Obama’s nominee for defense secretary. A week later, he took to “State of the Union” on CNN to chat about sequestration (bad) and the attack in Benghazi (worse).

Graphic

In May, he was on “Fox News Sunday,” talking about Middle East politics with Chris Wallace. Last week, Mr. McCain, who was in California for his oldest son’s wedding, hit “Face the Nation” on CBS, via satellite, to discuss his trip to Syria.

Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, is not his party’s most recent presidential nominee. He is no longer the highest-ranking Republican on any major Congressional committee. And as party spokesmen go, these days he is just as often speaking against Congressional Republicans as with them.

Yet on many given Sundays â€" over 60 of them since 2010 â€" Mr. McCain repairs to a television studio in Washington to hold forth. On “Face the Nation” alone, Mr. McCain has appeared more than any other politician in the program’s 60-year history.

His Sunday ubiquity has set off some grumbling in Washington that producers give him too much airtime. It also tends to solidify the impression in living rooms across America that he remains the spokesman for, and titular head of, his party.

“Really?” Mr. McCain said with a soupçon of glee when informed of his record-breaking Sunday showiness. “Well I enjoy them. I find it is the best way to communicate with the American people.”

In many ways, the Sunday morning talk shows are like ID lanyards and BlackBerries. While much of the nation has lost interest in them, they hold a big â€" some would say disproportionate â€" sway in Washington.

The programs’ producers and members of Congress â€" and, to some degree, White House officials â€" collaborate in a weekly seduction ritual in which producers try mightily to get the most powerful guests and newsmakers of the moment, as the guests’ staffs weigh the risks of stepping before some of the toughest questioners in Washington.

When it comes to a dream guest, program hosts say, Mr. McCain checks almost every box: a senior Republican senator who can speak authoritatively and contemporaneously on many issues, flies secretly to Syria, compares members of his own party to deranged fowl and yet is a reliable opponent of most Obama administration policies.

“What makes a good guest is someone who makes news,” said Mr. Wallace, the Fox host. “To make news, you have to be at the center of the news and willing to talk about it in a noncanned way, someone who always come to the shows ready to play.”

He went on: “I sometimes think to myself, ‘Gee we’ve had McCain on a lot,’ ” not to mention Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, and Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois. “But the fact of the matter is they are good guests.”

And good guests become frequent guests. The programs tend to be dominated by a handful of predictably quotable politicians. Others make only rare appearances when a pet issue rears its head. And still others, by choice or by elimination, never make the cut at all.

“I usually go where I’m asked,” said Senator Johnny Isakson, Republican of Georgia, who has not been on a Sunday talk show in the last few years. “I did Greta the other night,” Mr. Isakson pointed out, referring to the Fox News program “On the Record With Greta Van Susteren.”

Mr. Isakson, like several other Republicans, says Mr. McCain does not serve as a spokesman for them or their party. “We all speak for ourselves,” he said.

Critics of the Sunday programs argue that the words spoken on them are at once too calculated and overly interpreted, simply by virtue of where they are delivered. “You can go on Charlie Rose midweek and have a long conversation that ends in a game of strip poker and no one will pay attention,” said Philippe Reines, a senior adviser to former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. “You go on a Sunday show, and everyone is looking for the slightest change, a new syllable, some new nuance.”

A version of this article appeared in print on June 9, 2013, on page A18 of the New York edition with the headline: On the Sunday Morning Talk Shows, a Rather Familiar Cast of Characters .

Early Leader in Polls Usually Wins New York Mayoral Primary

The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989. If that pattern holds true in this year’s race, Speaker Christine C. Quinn of the City Council will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September. She has led in every primary poll conducted in 2013.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election. The only exception was in 2009, when then-Represenative Anthony D. Weiner led William C. Thompson Jr., the New York City comptroller, by five percentage points but decided not to formally enter the race.

Beyond Mr. Weiner in 2009, every early front-runner has won the Democratic nomination since 1989, which is as far back as FiveThirtyEight’s database of New York City mayoral polls goes. (Republican primaries in New York City have been less crowded and less competitive than Democratic races, and Republican polls have been more scarce.)

There were some close calls. In 2001, Fernando Ferrer, who was the Bronx borough president, nearly came from behind to defeat Mark Green, who was the New York City public advocate. Though Mr. Green had a lead of 10 percentage points over Mr. Ferrer in an average of early polls, Mr. Ferrer placed first in the primary. But Mr. Ferrer got just 36 percent of the vote, requiring a runoff election. (In New York City mayoral primaries, if no candidate earns at least 40 percent of the vote, an automatic runoff is held between the top two finishers.) Mr. Green won the runoff, 60 percent to 40 percent, and advanced to the general election.

While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.

What does all this tell us about this year’s mayoral race?

Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far this year. But her level of support has fallen from just under 40 percent early in the year to the high 20s in the most recent Quinnipiac and Marist polls, which included Mr. Weiner.

Ms. Quinn is also only one of four Democratic candidates polling in double digits, along with Mr. Weiner; Bill de Blasio; the city public advocate; and Mr. Thompson. John C. Liu, the city comptroller, is close behind at 9 percent.

No Democratic candidate has reached the 40 percent mark in any of the polls conducted this year, which points to the likelihood of a runoff election.

The last time four Democratic candidates had double-digit support in early polls, in 2005, the primary winner, Mr. Ferrer, avoided a runoff by a hair, just 0.2 percentage points. Four years earlier, in 2001, when five candidates were polling in double digits, Mr. Green and Mr. Ferrer ended up in a runoff.

So, if the historical precedent holds, Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.

Early Leader in Polls Usually Wins New York Mayoral Primary

The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989. If that pattern holds true in this year’s race, Speaker Christine C. Quinn of the City Council will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September. She has led in every primary poll conducted in 2013.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election. The only exception was in 2009, when then-Represenative Anthony D. Weiner led William C. Thompson Jr., the New York City comptroller, by five percentage points but decided not to formally enter the race.

Beyond Mr. Weiner in 2009, every early front-runner has won the Democratic nomination since 1989, which is as far back as FiveThirtyEight’s database of New York City mayoral polls goes. (Republican primaries in New York City have been less crowded and less competitive than Democratic races, and Republican polls have been more scarce.)

There were some close calls. In 2001, Fernando Ferrer, who was the Bronx borough president, nearly came from behind to defeat Mark Green, who was the New York City public advocate. Though Mr. Green had a lead of 10 percentage points over Mr. Ferrer in an average of early polls, Mr. Ferrer placed first in the primary. But Mr. Ferrer got just 36 percent of the vote, requiring a runoff election. (In New York City mayoral primaries, if no candidate earns at least 40 percent of the vote, an automatic runoff is held between the top two finishers.) Mr. Green won the runoff, 60 percent to 40 percent, and advanced to the general election.

While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.

What does all this tell us about this year’s mayoral race?

Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far this year. But her level of support has fallen from just under 40 percent early in the year to the high 20s in the most recent Quinnipiac and Marist polls, which included Mr. Weiner.

Ms. Quinn is also only one of four Democratic candidates polling in double digits, along with Mr. Weiner; Bill de Blasio; the city public advocate; and Mr. Thompson. John C. Liu, the city comptroller, is close behind at 9 percent.

No Democratic candidate has reached the 40 percent mark in any of the polls conducted this year, which points to the likelihood of a runoff election.

The last time four Democratic candidates had double-digit support in early polls, in 2005, the primary winner, Mr. Ferrer, avoided a runoff by a hair, just 0.2 percentage points. Four years earlier, in 2001, when five candidates were polling in double digits, Mr. Green and Mr. Ferrer ended up in a runoff.

So, if the historical precedent holds, Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.