Leno and Fallon Poke Fun at Their Uncertain Fates

NBC’s two late-night stars, Jay Leno and Jimmy Fallon, who have said nothing publicly about the rumors of a potential changing of the hosting guard at the “Tonight” show, got together Monday night to perform a rather romantic music video commentary on their much-publicized situation.

The video served as a crossover between the two shows, with Mr. Leno ending his real show Monday night and stepping into the video, which cut to Mr. Fallon sitting in his New York office, looking troubled by the headlines discussing his rumored takeover of the show.

Mr. Leno then placed a call to Mr. Fallon and they briefly chatted about the coverage, with Mr. Leno saying, “I gotta admit I’m getting a little sick of all this.”

Mr. Fallon pressed the issue by asking if they were still friends. That set off a parody of the song “Tonight,” starting with the introduction sung in “West Side Story” by Maria and Tony, all of which the late-night hosts lip-synched to voices that sounded like performers from a road company of “’Les Misérables.”

The lyrics included pretty straight references to the gist of the rumors, with Mr. Fallon citing the news about his appeal to younger viewers: “In the news, they say I’m replacing you, they think that I can woo, the demo.”

Mr. Leno sang back, “So the network says, here’s an idea: pack your bags, take a hike, NBC-ya!”

Mr. Fallon made reference to the nagging question: “Where will they tape ‘Tonight” Will it be New York Will it stay in LA”

Mr. Leno’s lyrics also cited his 20 years in first place in the ratings and included rumors that he might end up at Fox, or “maybe I could take over for Dave!”

(That Mr. Leno might succeed David Letterman on CBS is one of the more far-fetched musings in the media.)

But perhaps the most far-fetched lyric came in the final chorus as they harmonized operatically on the line “Tonight, tonight, who cares who hosts ‘Tonight’”

‘House of Cards,’ Episode 13 Recap: Journalism and Politics Finally Break Up

We made it. Ashley Parker and David Carr have been recapping “House of Cards,” which many people binged their way through weeks ago. Dropping the season all at once produced a big splash for Netflix, but it made going through the episodes of the series a bit of challenge. But we are finally crossing the finish line by getting to the finale, and if you haven’t done the same, by all means avoid the spoilers below. If, on the other hand, you want to catch up, you can find recaps of Episodes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12, right here.

Episode 13

Synopsis: Frank Underwood’s ultimate goal, at least for Season 1, is revealed, but he has newsies on his tail who smell a rat and/or a big story.

Carr: Is it just me, or are Frank Underwood’s charms a little less easy to discern now that we know he is a cold-blooded murderer Sure, he is still wheeling and dealing like the Frank of old, it’s just with that his manipulations seem less beguiling when you spot the blood on his hands.

Everything is bound to be a bit of an anticlimax now that Peter Russo has been rubbed out, but there are some worthies in this last episode of the season. Journalism and politics, which were odd and literal bedfellows for much of the season, have returned to their natural antagonisms.

While Frank is meeting with Remy and Mr. Tusk to iron out his plans to take over the world, Zoe Barnes and Janine Skorsky are starting to zero in on what might have happened to Peter Russo. “We need the arrest record,” Janine says to Zoe, and it is quickly discerned that all traces of Mr. Russo’s initial arrest have been taken care of by Mr. Underwood’s flying monkeys that do all of his bidding.

Working for Slugline, Zoe and Janine are a little short on cop sources, but thankfully, Ms. Barnes has switched beds and is sleeping with her former managing editor, Lucas, who is wired up at the cop shop. Zoe uses her one superpower â€" keening after coitus â€" to talk him into doing her bidding, and even though he observes, “This is really manipulative,” he punches in.

Mr. Underwood’s wife, Claire, has both nightmares and an unfolding civil case on her hands and she seems almost childlike as she crawls back under her husband’s wing after a vigorous round of straying and betraying.

Frank Underwood stops by a church for no discernible reason â€" he has no soul that I have noticed â€" and prays to both God and Satan before settling on praying to himself. The less said of that particular set piece the better, but speaking of scenes that clank, when Lucas, Janine and Zoe stand in a room and begin to piece the larger story together, it’s hard to watch. Investigative journalism is something that generally happens alone in a room with documents and when the epiphany emerges, it is not usually in conversation. But that doesn’t make for good visual storytelling, so we end up with reporters in a room, rubbing their temples and gaming the story out together.

I liked the season and the show â€" give or take â€" and will definitely tune in for the next, but when it becomes apparent at the end that Frank Underwood has been gunning to be the vice president all along, it’s hard to keep dissonance at bay. It’s like the person who spends wads of cash at the county fair trying to get the ring around the bottle and when he or she finally does, they hand him a cheap, dirty stuffed animal. Not that being vice president is nothing, but it’s a hard chair for somebody who is addicted to power like Frank Underwood. We can only guess that he is using it for his adjacency to the president so he can inflict maximum damage from close quarters. What’s your take on all that, Ashley

Parker: Keep in mind, for starters, that the only reason the V.P. slot is even available to Frank Underwood is because the previous vice president found the job so unappealing â€" and so utterly powerless â€" that he was easily convinced to give up the perch in order to run for governor of Pennsylvania, a job he’d already had. It’s a bit of a wonder Mr. Underwood would ever covet being vice president, though as you point out, he seems to know how to manipulate the president from both far out and close in, and we have to imagine this stop is yet another stepping stone to … something.

Like the show, hate the show, or find the show vexing and frustrating but ultimately addicting, what strikes me now at the end of the first season is how successfully â€" in D.C., at least â€" “House of Cards” has inserted itself into the fabric of the city. The other day, for instance, I received an email for a friend’s birthday that began by extolling the virtues of “our favorite Slugline colleague” â€" a k a, the birthday girl, who is in fact a reporter at a major national daily.

And then, the other night, I was eating dinner with a friend (and fellow reporter), and we were commiserating about editors and deadlines and being competitive in a 24-second news cycle world.

“Can you imagine if Slugline was real” she asked with a shudder of actual horror. “It would be unbearable.”

And on, and on.

Frank Underwood got less palatable and Claire Underwood got more complex and Peter Russo got snuffed out (alas), and Zoe Barnes seems to be committing occasional acts of real journalism. And I’m glad to have watched the show, and glad to be caught up with some of my peers, who binge-watched the entire 13 episodes the weekend or week they were first released.

Carr: Yes, it felt a little lonely out here, still playing “House of Cards” when the rest of the world was now playing “Game of Thrones,” which is kind of the same show in a way, but played out with armor and swords.

I like that the journalism â€" so much a part of the problem to start the season â€" has reared its head as a corrective, a source of accountability and eventually, the truth. Looking ahead, you’d have to think that Frank Underwood will find a way to make the dots stay unconnected so he can continue to perpetrate and the show can unfurl for another season, but it’s nice to see reporters hot on the trail and making Frank Underwood sweat.

Here are my wishes for the upcoming season: I would like Doug Stamper, Underwood’s loyal aide-de-sleaze, to turn on his boss. I’d like Ms. Underwood to develop a power base that is used for something besides advancing her husband’s interest. I’d like to see Slugline’s run-and-gun approach get the site in some hot water, and I’d also like Zoe Barnes to go after a story, start to finish, without sleeping with anybody.

We’d like to do something like this again, so if you have ideas on tempo, approach or format, please drop in on comments and tell us where to go.

Follow Ashley Parker on Twitter at @AshleyRParker.

Louisville Favored in Final Four, but Wichita State Could Become Unlikeliest Champion

This year’s N.C.A.A. tournament has not featured all that many great games â€" with some exceptions, like Michigan’s come-from-behind win against Kansas on Friday. The flip side is that the four teams that remain have all played exceptionally well, often dominating their opponents.

Louisville won its first four games by an average of 22 points â€" the same margin by which they beat Duke on Sunday. Syracuse has won by 20 points, on average. Michigan’s margin of victory has averaged 16 points, despite the close call against Kansas. Even Wichita State, which has a chance to become the most poorly-seeded team ever to win the tournament (and probably the least likely, statistically), has won their games by an average of 11 points.

What follows is an overview of the four teams that remain â€" how their odds have evolved through the tournament and what their chances look like now.

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Probability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 52.9 percent

Chance of winning tournament before tournament began: 22.7 percent

Chance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 32.4 percent

Chance of winning tournament now: 55.0 percent

Louisville began the tournament as the nominal front-runner, with a 22.7 percent chance of winning the title according to the FiveThirtyEight model. Their odds increased sharply after their first two games and have continued to rise after their wins against Oregon and Duke, and now stand at 55 percent.

This is despite the gruesome injury suffered by sophomore guard Kevin Ware on Sunday, which will affect Louisville’s depth. Ware had averaged just 17 minutes per game for the Cardinals, but he was productive when he played, shooting efficiently and averaging more than one steal per game despite the limited playing time. The FiveThirtyEight formula, which adjusts for player injuries, estimates that Louisville’s chances of winning the tournament would be closer to 57 percent (rather than 55 percent) if Ware were healthy. The intangible impact of the injury is obviously harder to gauge â€" especially after the Cardinals’ emotional second-half surge against Duke on Sunday.

But there is little reason to doubt that Louisville is the favorite. Wichita State, their opponent in the national semifinal, is dangerous enough â€" but a favorable opponent for the Cardinals compared with Ohio State or Gonzaga. (The FiveThirtyEight model gives Louisville an 85 percent probability of beating Wichita State, which would translate to their being ten-and-a-half point favorites in the Las Vegas point spread.) Another bonus is that Louisville is the closest of the four remaining teams to Atlanta, the site of the Final Four games, and has had little travel throughout the tournament, which should help to ensure that they are well-rested physically under emotionally trying circumstances.

Michigan Wolverines

Probability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 12.7 percent

Chance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.4 percent

Chance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 3.8 percent.

Chance of winning tournament now: 21.2 percent

The FiveThirtyEight model viewed Michigan as underrated - but it thought that was even more true of Florida, and so had the Gators favored to win the South region. Instead, Michigan blew Florida out on Sunday.

Still, Michigan provides some evidence for the hypothesis that the way a team finishes its regular season is not all that important â€" especially when one fails to account for changes to its strength of schedule. Michigan did not play an especially tough out-of-conference schedule this year, helping them to go 13-0 in nonconference play. But the Big Ten was brutally competitive, and most of Michigan’s toughest games were stacked in the second half of its schedule. It’s not clear that Michigan played any worse down the stretch as much as that it faced some tougher opponents.

Michigan will present a clash of styles against Syracuse, and potentially Louisville. The Wolverines rate as having the best offense in college basketball, according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, whereas the Orange and Cardinals have dominated defensively. Michigan enters the semifinal as essentially even-money against Syracuse (the FiveThirtyEight model gives Michigan a 51.9 percent chance of winning). But the score isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be close: the Wolverines’ reliance on the three-point shot could yield a blowout or an embarrassment depending on their accuracy from behind the arc.

Syracuse Orange

Probability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 11.7 percent

Chance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.0 percent

Chance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 4.8 percent.

Chance of winning tournament now: 19.0 percent

We’ve found that in contrast to how a team plays in the late stages of the regular season, how well it adapts to tournament conditions does have some predictive power. Hence, the FiveThirtyEight model increased Syracuse’s chances considerably after its record-setting opening-round win against Montana, and after their subsequent solid play against California and Marquette, making their defeat of Indiana on Saturday only a modest upset.

The catch is that the other teams in the Final Four have also played so well that it isn’t clear that you’d pick Syracuse even if you were determined to choose the hot hand.

Wichita State Shockers

Probability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 1.3 percent

Chance of winning tournament before tournament began: 0.08 percent

Chance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 1.2 percent

Chance of winning tournament now: 4.7 percent

The FiveThirtyEight model gave Wichita State only a 1.3 percent chance of reaching the Final Four before the tournament began, or about 75-to-1 odds against. Does that imply that their having reached the Final Four represents a once-every-75-year event - about as rare as Halley’s comet

Actually, the math is a little bit more complicated than that. There are four regions, and in each one, there are a number of long-shot teams, so there are a lot of opportunities every year for someone to defy the odds. Instead, our pretournament model suggested that there was about a 16 percent chance (roughly 1-in-6) that Wichita State or any of the other 37 teams with under a 2 percent chance of reaching the Final Four would do so.

Some of the historical cases of teams that defied even longer odds are well-known. Pennsylvania, in 1979, overcame what we estimate were about 500-to-1 odds against reaching the Final Four â€" while Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 was about an 800-to-1 underdog.

However, Wichita State’s accomplishment holds up well against some other Cinderella teams, including Louisiana State in 1986 and George Mason in 2006, both of which made the Final Four as No. 11 seeds. Wichita State was a No. 9 seed instead, and a reasonably good one. The problem is that being a No. 9 seed is probably more difficult than being a No. 11. A No. 9 seed will almost certainly have to defeat a No. 1 seed in its second game (as Wichita State did against Gonzaga) - eliminating the chance of getting lucky because the favorite gets knocked out early. In addition, Wichita State beat a very tough No. 8 seed, Pittsburgh, and a very tough No. 2 in Ohio State â€" and the Shockers have made some of these wins look easy.

The issue, as is the case for Syracuse, is that the accomplishments for the other three Final Four teams have been just as impressive â€" and they began with considerably better regular-season résumés than Wichita State. So the FiveThirtyEight model gives Wichita State only about a 5 percent chance of winning out.

But what if they do it The initial model gave Wichita State only about a 0.08 percent chance of winning the tournament, or about 1,200-to-1 odds against. If the Shockers win the tournament, they would probably qualify as the least-likely champions in history â€" displacing the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who won as a No. 8 seed and faced a somewhat more favorable draw.

Madison Avenue Springs April Fool’s Pranks Early

By now, it has become commonplace for marketers and advertising agencies to “front-run” holidays and big calendar events, starting their campaigns centered on Christmas, the Super Bowl or the back-to-school shopping season earlier each year.

For 2013, it seems, April Fool’s Day can be added to that list, as waiting until April 1 to spring pranks on unsuspecting consumers becomes increasingly passé. The reason for the April Fool’s front-running is the same as the reason for the front-running of other noted days: the ability of social media like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to convey and amplify marketing messages.

For instance, two major marketers started their April Fool’s jokes last week. (Or, officially, it ought to be said, seem to have started them, in that neither is talking about whether their announcements were the real deal or tomfoolery.)

One company, Procter & Gamble, along with several of its agencies, introduced a Web site, a video clip on YouTube and a Twitter hashtag for a new variety of Scope mouthwash called Scope Bacon, billed as the mouthwash “for breath that sizzles.”

Bacon-flavored mouthwash Really It appears that America must wait until Monday to find out if Procter is pulling its collective leg â€" or, perhaps, pulling on a pig’s foot.

The other marketer, the American Eagle Outfitters retail chain, introduced what it described as a line of Skinny Skinny jeans for young men and women, billed as “our skinniest fit yet.”

But in a video clip on YouTube, the models appear to be wearing body paint rather than pants. And on the retailer’s Web site, there are cans of paint labeled “Skinny Skinny,” in two colors, at the preposterous price of $49.95.

Again, American Eagle cautioned patience to those waiting for an explanation.

Some potential pranksters that pulled forward their mischief at least had the courtesy to label what they had planned as related to April Fool’s Day. One was CBS, which issued a news release on Tuesday that the April 1 episodes of “The Price Is Right” and “Let’s Make a Deal” would have April Fool’s Day themes.

In other instances, April Fool’s jokes were shared with reporters on Friday with the proviso that they be embargoed until Monday.

One example was a mock news release from the New York office of the Mother advertising agency, announcing that Mother New York had been named the “new agency of record” for the shadowy conspirators known as the Illuminati after the mysterious organization spent “nearly 237 years” with its previous agency.

(Maybe the release is real in that, as is the case with so many announcements about ad accounts changing hands, Mother New York omitted the name of the previous agency.)

Munchkin, a maker of products for babies and children, is to announce on Monday an imaginary product named Naughty Mouth soap, “to make your point when baby’s language isn’t the cleanest.” Flavors are to include lying liver and whining wasabi.

And the Professional Association of Diving Instructors is to announce on Monday an April Fool’s addition to its offerings: scuba diving certification for dogs and cats.