There may be no true standouts in this year’s National Football League draft, which begins tonight. The Times’s N.F.L. reporter, Judy Battista, called it the “disrespect draft,†and one former owner said there were fewer than 10 true prospects this year.
But how would they know? On average, teams are good at identifying the best players, but history shows randomness plays a role, too.
Nearly two-thirds of the most productive players drafted since 1995 were selected in the first round, but as the draft progresses, chance increasingly comes into play. While many of the picks in the later rounds are destined for the practice squad, there are still gems to be found.
Partly, that’s because assessing college players’ professional potential is difficult, especially in later rounds. Collegiate success is no guarantee of success in the N.F.L. Offensive and defensive schemes vary widely, and, unlike in baseball or basketball, there are relatively few games in a college football season, which means there are fewer observable events for scouts. Two behavioral economists, Cade Massey and Richard H. Thaler, analyzed the N.F.L. draft and found that teams were able to pick the best available player at a given position only about half the time.
Their advice to N.F.L. teams: Acknowledge the role of chance in the draft and manage it accordingly. Seek broad, independent advice, be slow to place credit or blame, and don’t put your franchise’s future on the shoulders of any one pick.
A new interactive graphic lets users explore the draft on their own. Filter through it and find out where the best players, as measured by their actual N.F.L. performance, were drafted each year. Tom Brady isn’t the only sixth-round Pro Bowler.
